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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.