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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."